By Stephen Stirling

New Jersey is only meeting 59 percent of its demand for substance abuse treatment, according to a study quietly published by the Department of Human Services.  

And the figure is almost certainly an overestimation. An analysis by NJ Advance Media shows that only through mathematical gymnastics was the state able to arrive at that figure, and the actual number is likely closer to 50 percent.

Still, the study shows New Jersey is struggling to keep up with demand for substance abuse treatment as the opioid crisis continues to surge, killing hundreds each year and enslaving tens of thousands more.

"There's definitely more demand (than a decade ago)," said Alan Oberman, who runs John Brooks Recovery Center, based in Atlantic County.  "The only difference I see is an increase in the number of for-profit (treatment centers), but that is more competition for staff than it is for clients."  

Gov. Chris Christie has made confronting the opioid crisis a priority in his second term, pushing hundreds of millions of dollars toward prevention and treatment efforts. 

"It would not be appropriate for staff to conjecture about the reason for increased access to or abuse of prescription or illicit drugs," said Division of Mental Health and Addiction Service spokeswoman Nicole Brossoie. "What we can say is that Governor Christie has been a leader in the fight against addiction throughout his administration - as an advocate for prevention, treatment and recovery. The increased funding and policy changes absolutely have made a difference."

The state published their findings as part of an annual demographic analysis of its treatment population, which also showed heroin and opioid abusers made up more than 50 percent of the treatment population for the second straight year. More than 38,000 patients were treated for opioid addiction in 2016, up from 24,000 in 2006.

The state issued an analysis of treatment demand for the first time since 2010. It estimates how many people who felt they needed treatment actually received it. 

The state analysis shows about 41 percent of people who felt they needed treatment did not receive it in 2016, up from 35 percent in 2007. Two counties, Bergen and Morris, did not meet 50 percent of the demand for treatment.  

But in the footnotes of the study, the state indicates that the calculations were largely based on survey data from 2007 and 2010, pitted against the adult population in 2016.  

Using the 2016 survey data alone, which is how the state calculated the figures in previous studies, only 51 percent of demand for treatment is being met.

"Staff explains that the 2016 Household Survey proportion of adults indicating unmet demand was nearly twice the proportions found in either the 2003 or 2009 Household Surveys," Brossoie said. "This likely was a result of the smaller sample size for the 2016 Survey (1,050) vs. nearly 15,000 for the prior surveys. It was decided to use the average of the last three proportions, rather than to rely on just the 2016 proportion, in order to provide a more reliable estimate of unmet demand." 

Gov. Christie declined comment through a spokesman. 

Demand also differs from need. Federal studies indicate the need for treatment is often five to ten times higher than the actual demand, which represents people actually seeking out treatment for addiction. NJ Advance Media estimated there were at least 128,000 heroin addicts alone in New Jersey in 2015.